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COVID-19

Covid-19: Expert group says Denmark could reach 2020 peak infection numbers

The coming weeks could see Denmark match its highest ever totals for the number of daily infections with Covid-19, according to an advisory group. The number of patients admitted to hospitals with the virus will also increase.

Covid-19 testing in Denmark in October 2020. Infections are expected to remain high in coming weeks, notably amongst under-60s and unvaccinated people. an expert group said on November 2nd.
Covid-19 testing in Denmark in October 2020. Infections are expected to remain high in coming weeks, notably amongst under-60s and unvaccinated people. an expert group said on November 2nd. Photo: Henning Bagger/Ritzau Scanpix

An updated forecast for infection trends in November and early December was released on Tuesday by an expert group for mathematical modelling under the national infectious disease agency, State Serum Institute (SSI).

The group estimates between 2,000 and 4,500 infections per day at the beginning of December provided societal activity continues as it is now.

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The record-highest number of infections recorded in a day in Denmark was 4,508 at the peak of the second wave on December 18th last year.

Up to 60-160 people could be hospitalised with the virus daily in early December, according to the projections. This does not mean the number of people in hospital with Covid-19 will increase this much each day, because it does not take into account the number of discharged patients.

The mathematical modelling accounts for the period up to December 5th.

Wednesday saw 1,978 new infections with Covid-19 registered in Denmark, according to SSI’s daily update. 114,365 tests were conducted, giving a test positivity rate of 1.73 percent.

264 people were in hospital in Denmark with the coronavirus at Wednesday’s update, which showed an increase in the total for the fourth consecutive day. It is also the highest number for hospitalisations since February.

The expert group expects the majority of infections between now and December to occur in people under the age of 60 and those who have not been vaccinated against Covid-19.

It should be noted that the projections are estimates and must be attached with a degree of uncertainty. Some of that certainty lies in potential changes to public behaviour if infections continue to increase, the expert group said.

An earlier projection by the group, released in October, proved to give a low estimate of the number of hospitalisations now occurring.

That may be explained in part by increased testing, including of patients who are admitted to hospital for non-Covid-19 reasons in accordance with new guidelines.

A change in public activity may also be a factor.

“We cannot say quite exactly what the reason is for this jump. It comes in the wake of the autumn holidays where people are often closer and together with their families in mixed generations,” Doctor Camilla Holten Møller, head of the expert group, said in a press statement.

An updated projection by the expert group is due two weeks from now.

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COVID-19 STATS

Covid-19: Virus remains on downward trend in Denmark in latest report

The number of Covid-19 infections in Denmark is still declining, as has been the trend for some weeks.

Covid-19: Virus remains on downward trend in Denmark in latest report

In addition to confirmed cases, the number of PCR tests administered to check for the virus is also falling. Authorities recently announced that PCR testing capacity would be halved, before a strategy for testing next winter is announced later this year.

The continued falloff in cases was one of the trends noted in a new report from the infectious disease agency, State Serum Institute (SSI). The report is based on data from the most recent week.

During the period covered by the report, the number of new cases of Covid-19 fell by 18 percent, meaning 82 in 100,000 residents of Denmark tested positive for Covid-19.

The number of PCR tests fell by 14 percent during the same period, with around 7,000 tests administered each day.

“Transmission in the community is falling in general and across all age groups,” SSI medical head of department Rebecca Legarth told news wire Ritzau.

The decline in number of new recorded cases may be linked to the reduction in recorded number of hospital patients with a positive Covid test.

Last week saw the number of hospitalised people with Covid-19 fall by 23 percent. Not all people in hospital who have the virus are being treated for it, with their hospitalisation being for other reasons in many cases.

Denmark ended its Covid-19 restrictions in February and March, while health authorities also changed recommendations on when a PCR test should be taken.

In March, the Danish Health Authority changed its recommendations on when people with suspected Covid-19 should be tested for the coronavirus, with testing now only recommended if there is a “special medical reason” for doing so.

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