The report, Updated Assessment of the Threat from Russia to the Realm, generated headlines in US publications such as Newsweek, the New York Post, and Politico, and was especially heavily covered in newspapers in neighbouring Sweden.
Denmark's government then on February 19th used the threat analysis to justify pumping an extra 50 billion kroner into defence spending, taking the total spend to well over 3 percent of GDP.
So what is the updated assessment and what does it say?
What was published was a simplified version of the intelligence agency's Intelligence Outlook 2024 report, which was published in both English and Danish on January 22nd.
Russia is preparing for a broader war
The updated assessment argues that the way Russia is rebuilding and reconstructing its military is no longer directed solely towards replacing and reinforcing machines, weapons and troops lost in Ukraine, but appears to now have broader intentions.
"These efforts have changed character during 2024 from a reconstruction to an intensified military rearmament with the goal of being able to wage an equal fight against Nato forces," the update reads.
"The economic and material support it is receiving from China and the support from North Korea and Iran with troops and weapons systems, respectively, are increasingly contributing to freeing up resources for Russia's rearmament vis-a-vis Nato."
"Russia sees itself in a conflict with the West and is preparing for a war with Nato," the report continues.
How soon could Russia launch a conflict with another European power?
This is the bit that generated headlines. The report estimates that Russia's transformation into a war economy means it could be in a position to threaten other countries within a matter of months.
According to the assessment, Russia would be sufficiently well-armed to launch the following conflicts on the following time lines:
6 months: Wage a local war in a country bordering Russia.
2 years: Pose a credible threat to individual or multiple Nato countries and be ready for a regional war against several countries in the Baltic Sea region.
5 years: Be ready for a large-scale war on the European continent
So is Russia actually planning to do this?
It's planning for the possibility.
"This does not mean that the decision has been made to start such a war, but that Russia is rearming and building up capacity so that it would be able to take such a decision," the report states.
The timelines describe what might happen "if the balance of power shifts in Russia's favour".
Currently, the report concludes, Russia wants to avoid any actions that trigger Article 5 of the Nato treaty, which requires all allies to come to the defence of the member that has been attacked.
This might change, however, if:
- Russia's conventional military strength grows without a corresponding increase in Western military capabilities
- Russia perceives Nato as militarily weakened or politically divided, for example if the US either cannot or does not want to support European Nato countries
- the war in Ukraine comes to an end. It is "unlikely", the report concludes, that Russia would be willing to carry out a war with two countries simultaneously.
Russia, the report underlines, would only risk a large-scale war in Europe if US forces were not involved.
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