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Final opinion poll suggests no clear majority in Denmark's 2022 election

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Ritzau/The Local - [email protected]
Final opinion poll suggests no clear majority in Denmark's 2022 election
Polling stations are open in Denmark as the country votes in parliamentary elections on November 1st. Photo: Henning Bagger/Ritzau Scanpix

The outcome of Denmark's election could lie with new centrist party The Moderates, according to a final opinion poll, as neither the right or left wings look set to gain a majority.

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Today's election decides the distribution of parliament’s 179 seats or mandates, mandater. Therefore, one of the two blocs can seal an overall election victory if it claims 90 or more mandates, giving it a majority.

But neither bloc looks likely to gain their own majority, so they will not be able to govern without the help of the Moderates, a centrist party founded this year by former Liberal Party leader and two-time prime minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen.

READ MORE: ‘Bloc politics’: A guide to understanding parliamentary elections in Denmark

According to the latest Voxmeter opinion poll, the Moderate party is placed at 8.5 percent with 15 mandates. The blue bloc (right wing) is expected to gain 74 mandates. The red bloc (left wing) is predicted to gain 86 mandates, plus three expected red "North Atlantic mandates", which means the red bloc is just one mandate short of a majority.

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Under Denmark’s constitution, four seats in parliament or “North Atlantic mandates” as they are termed in Danish politics are awarded to parties from the Faroe Islands and Greenland.

Both red and blue bloc already know they have one mandate each after the results from the election on the Faroe Islands, which took place on Monday.

READ MORE: Why Faroe Islands and Greenland could decide Danish election result

The Voxmeter survey is based on telephone interviews conducted on 31st October with 4,577 representatively selected people over the age of 18.

For both of the two blocs, there is a statistical uncertainty of 1.3 percent. However, the latest prediction of 8.5 percent of the vote for the Moderates, is lower than the results of the last two Voxmeter polls.

A week ago, the Moderates were predicted to gain 11.5 percent of the vote, while a poll on Thursday gave the party 10 percent of the vote.

The Social Democrats continue to look set to become the largest party in the Folketing (parliament). In the final poll, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen's party has 24.2 percent of the vote. This is a decline of 1.7 percent compared to the 2019 election.

The blue bloc's largest party, the Liberals (Venstre), are also set to go backwards compared to the last election. In the survey on Tuesday, Jakob Ellemann-Jensen's party stands at 14.0 percent against the 2019 election result of 23.4 percent.

The Conservatives also look set to finish below their 2019 result. In the poll on Tuesday, the party stands at 6.1 percent of the vote.

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Both the Liberal Alliance and the Danish Democrats are predicted to gain more votes than Søren Pape Poulsen's Conservative party.

According to the final poll, both the Danish People's Party and the Alternatives look like they will get over the 2 percent threshold to gain a seat in Parliament, with the Danish People's Party standing at 2.9 precent and Alternatives at 3.6 percent.  

The ballot boxes across the country open on Tuesday at 8am and close at 8pm.

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