SHARE
COPY LINK

COVID-19 STATS

Covid-19: Data suggests Danish epidemic ‘becoming stable’

Health Minister Magnus Heunicke said on Tuesday that the Covid-19 epidemic in Denmark is showing signs of becoming ‘more stable’ after weeks of growth, with new data suggesting a flat level of transmission.

The latest R-number or reproduction rate for Covid-19 in Denmark suggests a currently more stable epidemic after weeks of growth.
The latest R-number or reproduction rate for Covid-19 in Denmark suggests a currently more stable epidemic after weeks of growth. File photo: Philip Davali/Ritzau Scanpix

The reproduction rate or R-number for the virus is 1.0 according to latest calculations, Heunicke noted in a tweet on Tuesday. An R-number over 1.0 means that 10 people with the virus on average pass it on to more than 10 others, meaning the epidemic grows.

If the number is under 1.0, the epidemic declines.

The metric has been over 1.0 since mid-October, meaning an increase in the epidemic throughout that time.

Heunicke stated in the tweet that growth is now retreating and there are signs of a stable epidemic in Denmark.

“Other key numbers such as incidence, positivity rate etc suggest that we have a more stable epidemic,” he wrote.

“This could be because of factors including immunity from vaccinations and boosters, with one in seven people over the age of 12 now having had a third dose,” he added.

The R-rate is subject to a lag and gives an impression of the status of the epidemic around 10 days ago.

Earlier in November, Denmark reintroduced coronapas Covid-19 health pass requirements and this week saw the return of mandated face mask use in public transport and retail settings.

The country has also begun vaccinating children aged 5-11 after this was approved by health authorities last week.

Tuesday’s daily update saw an additional 4,148 new Covid-19 cases registered, broadly in line with daily totals over the last two weeks.

The positivity rate was 2.58 percent, with 160,583 tests conducted. 433 people are currently admitted to hospital with the virus, 13 fewer than on Monday.

Infectious disease agency State Serum Institute (SSI) is meanwhile investigating nine suspected cases of Covid-19 infection with the new Omicron variant, in addition to the two already confirmed in Denmark, the agency in a statement on Monday.

“The Danish Patient Safety Authority undertakes intensified contact tracing for these cases and also investigates the circumstances of infection,” SSI said.

READ ALSO: Denmark does not rule out new travel restrictions after Omicron variant detected

Member comments

Log in here to leave a comment.
Become a Member to leave a comment.

COVID-19 STATS

Denmark’s Covid-19 hospitalisation figure ‘could reach 750’ in December

The number of people hospitalised with Covid-19 in Denmark could increase to 750 this month, according to a projection from an official expert group.

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and senior health officials visit a vaccination centre at Copenhagen Central Station on December 3rd.
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and senior health officials visit a vaccination centre at Copenhagen Central Station on December 3rd. Photo: Philip Davali/Ritzau Scanpix

The expert group for mathematical modelling, which is attached to the national infectious disease agency State Serum Institute (SSI), released the estimate on Friday.

As of Friday afternoon, 449 patients with Covid-19 are admitted to hospitals in Denmark. The figure has been increasing in recent weeks but is still some way short of the peak hospitalisation figures from the winter 2020 wave, which exceeded 900.

“There are not catastrophic conditions yet but we have a combination of a tangible lack of nurses combined with this strain (of high patient numbers). It is clearly putting pressure on hospitals,” Kasper Karmark Iversen, senior medical consultant and professor at the University of Copenhagen and Herlev-Gentofte Hospital, told news wire Ritzau earlier this week.

The mathematical expert group calculates possible scenarios in which coronavirus restrictions could be phased out.

“The projections show a continued increase in the number of hospitalisations,” said the head of the group, Camilla Holten Møller.

“New hospitalisations of 70-200 per day and 550-750 in hospital (in total) are estimated up to the middle of December,” Møller said.

The figure for new hospitalisations does not account for discharged patients and therefore does not reflect the overall change in the total number of patients in hospital with Covid-19.

The expert group also predicts between 3,400 and 8,300 new cases of the virus daily by the middle of December. The group notes that its projections do not take into account the vaccination drive launched by the government this week. They also only partly account for anti-infection measures already in place, such as Covid-19 health pass (coronapas) requirements and face mask rules.

A total of 4,559 new Covid-19 cases were reported in SSI’s daily update on Friday. The total comes from 196,932 PCR tests, giving a positivity rate of 2.32 percent.

Daily cases have now been over 4,000 for six consecutive days. Friday’s positivity rate is a little lower than the typical rate seen this week, which is closer to 2.50.

READ ALSO:

 

SHOW COMMENTS