Five key outcomes from the election reflect the contrasting fortunes of the competing political parties.
Conservatives lose Frederiksberg after 112 years
The Social Democrats have taken the mayor’s office in Frederiksberg, the Copenhagen municipality that has had a Conservative mayor for over a century. The race in the capital was expected to be one of the evening’s most dramatic.
Although the Conservatives and their incumbent mayor Simon Aggesen took 40.4 percent of the vote, an increase of 3.3 points on the 2017 election, that was not enough to hold off the Social Democrats, who were able to form an alliance with the other left-wing parties to put a majority behind their candidate Michael Vindfeldt.
Losing night for the Social Democrats despite holding Copenhagen mayor’s office
Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen’s party did not perform well at the polls overall, despite the historic triumph in Frederiksberg.
The headline defeat for the Social Democrats came in Copenhagen itself. Here, the left wing Red Green Alliance won the biggest vote share, humiliating the powerful government party which usually has a strong position in the capital.
Despite the Red Green Alliance victory, the Social Democrats keep the mayor’s office with their candidate Sophie Hæstorp Andersen taking over the job with an absolute majority of parties backing her candidacy.
But a 10-point loss of the vote share still represents a big defeat and reflects the unpopularity in Copenhagen of the politics of the parliamentary Social Democrats, who have often directed unfavourable rhetoric at metropolitan demographics and, for example, cut university education in the capital in favour of smaller towns.
Nationally, the 28.45 percent vote share for the Social Democrats is a 4 percent loss compared to 2017.
Danish People’s Party could get new leader after another heavy defeat
Just like at the 2019 general election, the Danish People’s Party flopped badly in the local elections, losing over half of their vote share from 2017 going from 8.75 percent to 4.08 percent.
Leader Kristian Thulesen Dahl said this morning that he will move for an extraordinary annual meeting at which the anti-immigration party could elect a new leader.
Asked if he would run in a new leadership contest, Thulesen Dahl said “no, it’s clear that if an annual meeting is summoned, that’s a situation that is meant to enable a fresh start”.
Loss of Frederiksberg does not ruin good night for Conservatives
Despite the sensational loss of Frederiksberg described above, the Conservative party can convincingly argue they were the biggest winners after translating their national popularity to increased local vote shares.
Nationally, the party took 15.23 percent of the vote share, which comes close to doubling the 8.78 percent result from 2017. In terms of municipal seats, the party becomes the third-largest in Denmark.
The other big conservative party, the Liberals (Venstre) performed slightly better than expected although their vote share was reduced to 21.18 percent from 2017’s 23.06 percent.
Of the four mainstream ‘red bloc’ parties on the left wing, all apart from the Social Democrats had a decent night. The Socialist People’s Party (SF), Social Liberal Party and Red Green Alliance all increased their vote shares by between 1 and 2 percent.
Far right party outperforms own expectations
The far-right party Nye Borgerlige (New Right), which was formed in 2015 and entered parliament in 2019, outstripped its stated ambition of gaining 10 municipal seats by some distance, and by more than many analysts predicted, ending with 64.
The anti-immigration, anti-EU and anti-Islam party has now fully established itself at the local and national level after taking just a single municipal seat in 2017. It increased its vote share from 0.9 percent four years ago to 3.6 percent in 2021.
While it is likely that Nye Borgerlige is profiting from far-right voters who are abandoning the Danish People’s Party, it’s worth observing that the combined vote shares for these two parties are lower in 2021, at 7.7 percent, than in 2017, when the combined share was 9.6 percent.