The left-leaning 'red bloc' of parties, led by Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen's party the Social Democrats, appears to be slightly ahead of the conservative 'blue bloc' on Tuesday, as Danes head to polling stations.
The red bloc is polling at a total of 48.3 percent, or 85 seats, while the blue bloc is polling at 44.6 percent, or 78 seats. The centrist Moderate party, who look like they will get 7.1 percent of the vote and 12 seats, are not aligned to either bloc and could therefore play an important kingmaker role after polls close at 8pm today.
The ‘bloc’ classification commonly referred to in Danish politics broadly denotes whether a party or group of parties is on the right or left of centre.
The Danish parliament has 179 seats (175 filled by Danish MPs and two each to Greenland and the Faroe Islands), so a majority of 90 seats is needed to form a government.
As such, both the left and right wing blocs would need to secure the support of the Moderates together enough support to take office, should the poll be replicated in the election itself.
That could lead to thorny negotiations during the days and weeks after the election, with no guarantee on which side the Moderate party, led by Lars Løkke Rasmussen will come down, or even if they will be accepted as a coalition party by either side.
READ ALSO: Can Denmark's conservative parties find a way to govern together?
The outgoing cross-bloc centrist government consists of the Social Democrats, who are polling at a slightly lower 22.4 percent compared to the 27.5 percent they achieved at the last election in 2022, the Liberals (Venstre), who have just 9.7 percent of the vote (down from 13.3 percent), and the Moderates, who are also polling lower than in 2022, where they received 9.3 percent of the vote.
It is still not yet clear whether Mette Frederiksen plans to return to bloc politics and realign herself with the red bloc, or if she plans to once again form a centrist government across both blocs.
Her main rival in the election, Liberal leader Troels Lund Poulsen, wants to lead a "centrist conservative government", he has stated.
The Liberals, who are traditionally the largest party on the right and who usually supply the prime minister if the blue bloc wins, are currently on track for their worst election ever, polling lower than their lowest result so far in 1987 (10.5 percent).
Libertarian party Liberal Alliance, led by Alex Vanopslagh, appear to have overtaken the Liberals as the largest party in their bloc just before the finish line.
The Liberals are currently polling at 9.7 percent, while Liberal Alliance are polling at 10.8 percent. If these figures match the final election result, that would be the best ever result for Liberal Alliance, who achieved a record 7.9 percent in 2022.
Liberal leader Troels Lund Poulsen is currently the party's prime ministerial candidate, but Vanopslagh has said he is ready to be prime minister if his party is the largest in the blue bloc.
A potential winner in the red bloc could be the Green Left (Socialistisk Folkeparti, SF), who are predicted 11.percent of the votes or 21 seats, up from 8.3 percent and 15 seats in 2022.
The far-right Danish People's Party looks likely to recover from a disastrous 2.6 percent share in the 2022 election, polling at 7.6 percent.
The final opinion poll also shows two small parties, the environmentalist Alternative and recently-formed Borgernes Parti ("Citizens' Party") both clearing the 2 percent threshold needed to qualify for parliamentary representation. Each party has a 2.8 share in the poll.
At Copenhagen's City Hall, voters, many on their way to work, lined up to cast their ballots as polls opened at 8am.
"The alternatives (to Frederiksen) are worse," 24-year-old student Freja Strandlod told news agency AFP just after casting her vote.
"People may not really like her, but they see her as the right leader," Elisabet Svane, political analyst at Danish newspaper Politiken, told AFP.
Frederiksen, who had "a prime minister you can count on" as one of her campaign slogans "is a unifying figure in a world full of insecurity, and Danes are quite anxious -- there's Greenland, Ukraine, (and mystery) drones" that flew over the Scandinavian country last year, Svane said.
In addition, "it's hard to imagine a right-wing government because it would have to unite such a broad swath, from the far right to the more centrist parties, which are not on very good terms with the far right," Ole Wæver, a political science professor at the University of Copenhagen, said to AFP.
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