Danish export companies may have mixed feelings after the election of Donald Trump for a second term as US President.
During his campaign, Trump pledged to protect American jobs by imposing punitive tariffs on goods from China and Europe.
That could be strongly felt in Denmark, which counts the United States as one of its key export markets.
But concerned businesses and staff should take a beat before assuming Trump’s campaign rhetoric will translate into policy according to Tore Stramer, chief economist at the Danish Chamber of Commerce (Dansk Erhverv).
"I think we should be careful about equating campaign statements with the policies that might be implemented after a presidential transition," Stramer told newswire Ritzau.
"The last time Trump was president our trade with the US actually increased, so it’s far from certain that things will go as badly as feared,” he said.
The economist noted that making foreign goods more expensive would hurt Americans too, which will likely factor into policy decisions.
"That’s why a full-blown trade war isn’t our primary expectation," he said.
As much as 80 percent of Danish exports to the US don’t actually cross any borders because they are goods produced within the United States by American workers, Stramer said.
This means they would not be affected by any potential trade war.
Nevertheless, the transport sector, in which companies like Maersk and DSV play a key role for Denmark, could feel the impact if global trade declines and fewer goods need shipping.
Stramer said he is not convinced that such a situation will actually materialise, however. The economist said that he expects trade with the US to grow in the short term.
"We know that Trump plans to pursue an expansionary economic policy with tax cuts, less regulation of businesses, and increased public spending," he said.
"All this means we’ll see more American consumers with strong purchasing power, which will drive higher demand for Danish export goods,” he said.
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