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NORD STREAM

Who is behind the Nord Stream Baltic pipeline attack?

The Russians, the Ukrainians, the Americans, or someone else entirely. Who blew up the Nord Stream gas pipeline?

Pipes at the landfall facilities of the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline are pictured in Lubmin, Germany in March, 2022.
Pipes at the landfall facilities of the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline are pictured in Lubmin, Germany in March, 2022. Photo by REUTERS/Hannibal Hanschke/File Photo

Ukraine quickly declared the explosions that caused the leaks in the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines to be an operation by Russia, aimed at worsening the EU economy and adding to panic over winter gas prices, while Radosław Sikorski, a former Polish defence and foreign minister, thanks the US for what he described as “a special maintenance operation”. 

The governments of Denmark, Sweden, and Germany, the most closely affected countries, while all stating that they believe the explosions were the result of a deliberate attack, have so far been careful not to point fingers at anyone. 

So what are the theories raging over who might be behind the attack? 

The Russian hybrid warfare theory

Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhaylo Podolyak said on Twitter that the damage to Nord Stream 1 and 2 was “a terrorist attack planned by Russia and an act of aggression against the EU”. 

Poland’s Prime Minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, also pointed the finger at Russia. 

“It was probably an act of sabotage, so it is most likely a signal from Russia, because we are waiting for these circumstances to be confirmed, and it is something very disturbing,” he said. “This is something that shows what means and mechanisms the Russians can resort to in order to destabilise Europe even more.” 

This line was echoed by Simone Tagliapietra, senior fellow at the Bruegel think-tank, who wrote on Twitter that the sabotage showed Russia escalating its use of the energy weapon to hybrid war.   

Brigadier General Carsten Rasmussen, who was Denmark’s Defence Attaché in Moscow until June, laid out the argument for why Russia might want to blow up the own pipeline in a series of Tweets in Danish. 

He said that the sabotage “creates fear” about whether Europe can get gas this winter, and also over the vulnerability of other infrastructure in Europe. He said the sabotage would lead markets to react, pushing up gas prices by 12 percent. He said the attack would “threaten Western unity”, pointing to  Sikorski’s tweet. Finally, he said the attack was a distraction from Russia’s referendums annexing new areas conquered in its invasion. 

“Who might be interested in provoking the four effects mentioned?” he asks, pointing the finger at Russia. “Nothing has yet been proven – and perhaps never will be. The sabotage actions in the Baltic Sea look like a hybrid action, not aimed at Denmark, but at the West’s unity and willingness to support Ukraine.” 

The Kremlin’s spokesman Dmitri Peskov dismissed such attempts to blame Russia as “quite predictable and also predictably stupid”. 

“This is a big problem for us, ” he protested in a call with journalists. “Because firstly, both lines of Nord Stream 2 are filled with gas – the entire system is ready to pump gas and the gas is very expensive… Now the gas is flying off into the air.”

André Ken Jakobsson, an expert at hybrid warfare at the University of Southern Denmark, told The Local that, despite the Kremlin’s protests, he believed that Russia was the “most logical” culprit. 

“I think it’s, it’s first of all strategic signalling towards the West, saying, ‘we are not above attacking civilian critical infrastructure. They’re doing it to a pipeline built by themselves, but also remember, it’s a joint project with Germany. And they’re doing it very close to the Danish territorial waters, which also is a signal towards Denmark, in my view, because Denmark was a big problem for them when they were finally laying down of the pipes, and Russia became very upset about this. So it’s an escalation towards the west, in my view.”¨

He said that Russia might also intend to use the damage to the pipeline as an instrument to get sanctions lifted at a later date. 

“We saw that with Nord Stream 1 some a long time ago. There was a problem with a turbine, and Russia said, ‘in order to get that fixed, we need some of these technological sanctions lifted. And I see the same play here, saying, ‘we can fix it, of course, but then we need advanced technology, and need to lift your sanctions’.”

US strategic attack or revenge for Ukraine invasion

Radosław Sikorski, a former Polish defence and foreign minister, posted a now highly criticised tweet thanking the US for the action. 

In follow-on tweets, Sikorski explained that Nord Stream’s main purpose for Russia had been to allow it to blackmail Eastern Europe with threats to cut off the gas, without also having to cut off gas to customers in Western Europe. 

“Nordstream’s only logic was for Putin to be able to blackmail or wage war on Eastern Europe with impunity,” he wrote. “All Ukrainian and Baltic sea states have opposed Nordstream’s construction for 20 years. Now $20 billion of scrap metal lies at the bottom of the sea, another cost to Russia of its criminal decision to invade Ukraine. Someone, @MFA_Russia, did a special maintenance operation.” 

Backing this argument is a clip taken from a press conference US President Joe Biden held with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in February, days before Russia invaded Ukraine.  

“If Russia invades… then there will no longer be a Nord Stream 2,” Biden said. “We will bring an end to it.”

This has been tweeted thousands of times today in what some have dismissed as a Russian propaganda operation. Rather than threatening to sabotage the pipeline, Biden is more likely to have been referring to the possibility that Germany could simply block the pipeline and refuse to use it. 

Germany in the end went ahead with that decision and block the newly completed Nord Stream 2, taken the decision only days before Russia sent troops to Ukraine. 

Ukrainians, Poles, or Baltic States 

Emma Ashford, an expert on energy politics at the Stimson Centre, a US Democrat think tank, went through the options in the an interesting thread on Twitter, and said it would “make logical sense” for the Ukrainians, Baltic States or Poles to do it, as the pipeline had long been a threat to their national security. 

But she said, it was “unclear if they have the capabilities”, and questioned whether they would be willing to take the risk of being found. 

She concludes in the end that the perpetrator is most likely to be Russia. 

“There’s no way to know, but any explanation here requires someone to make a stupid strategic choice,” she said. “My money is on Putin, who’s been making them all year.”

Member comments

  1. One has to contort oneself into extreme, really impossible Machiavellian postures to think that the US would take steps to cut off any energy source to Western Europe for alleged political ends! If Europe is suffering from energy lack this winter, you can be sure the US will be doing its best to help relieve that condition. And it’s certainly not that the current US administration is looking for expanded markets and increased prices for its fossil fuels because it is doing everything it can to shut down their production and use. The US is doing a lot to support the Ukrainians in their struggle with Russia and would like its European allies to step up their efforts. Cutting them off from any essential energy source is certainly not going to help that! I think you don’t have to look any further than Russia to explain this “mysterious” leak and the excuse it provides to shut off the pipeline.

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ENERGY

Danish Energy Agency advises homes with gas heating to conserve

The Danish Energy Agency (Energistyrelsen) has issued guidelines to households heated by individual gas heaters in a bid to help them avoid very high bills.

Danish Energy Agency advises homes with gas heating to conserve

Around 240,000 households in Denmark will receive advice from the agency by physical or digital post, the agency said in a statement on Friday.

Gas prices in Denmark are currently rising as temperatures drop and energy production from wind turbines falls due to weather conditions.

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“The Danish Energy Agency views it as an important task to help people like those with individual gas heaters [Danish: gasfyr] through good advice about how they best can reduce their heating consumption and take the worst off their gas bill,” head of office Vincent Rudnicki said in the statement.

The information letters are part of a national energy saving campaign which seeks to cut energy consumption during a period when prices can go through large variations.

When gas prices reached their 2022 peak in August, one megawatt hour of gas cost over 300 euros according to the Dutch exchange TTF.

At the beginning of December, the price has increased to 131 euros per megawatt hour after going through a period with lower prices during the autumn.

Although the price remains low compared to August, it is higher than it was two years ago, according to comments previously given to news wire Ritzau by Sydbank’s senior economist Søren Kristensen.

Kristensen said that the cost of heating a housing in Denmark is now 10,000 kroner per year higher on average than it was in the years prior to the energy crisis.

He also said that the winter is likely to push prices up from their current level.

“That will unfortunately mean that it will in no way be a cheap winter in relation to heating up the house or using electricity,” he said.

The Danish Energy Agency information letter will be sent to persons who own single-family houses which are heated by natural gas heaters, according to information stored on the national register BBR (Bygnings- og Boligregistret).

“At this time we have particular focus on those who live in villas or semi-detached houses because they have seen the largest of all the gas bill increases,” Rudnicki said.

In some cases, persons who no longer have gas heating will receive the letter if the BBR registry has not been updated, he noted.

Advice included in the information packs includes reducing temperature, using less hot water and having gas boilers services.

The saving tips may also be relevant for people who live in other types of housing, such as apartments, rental houses or terraced houses, according to the Energy Agency.

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