Why next week could be crucial for Danish heating this winter
Energy analysts in Denmark say a potential closure of the Nord Stream 1 gas pipe from next week could have a decisive effect on whether Denmark has enough gas this winter – and how much it will cost.
The Nord Stream 1 gas pipe, which supplies Russian natural gas to Denmark via Germany, is to be closed for three days for maintenance work next week, Russian authorities have said.
But doubts in the EU over whether the Russians will reopen the connection have caused a spike in already-high gas prices and concerns that stocks might not last the winter in Denmark.
Around 400,000 people in Denmark heat their homes using individual gas heater (gasfyr in Danish). Additionally, many district heating areas are reliant on power stations which are partially gas-fuelled.
Monday’s record gas price of 277 euros per megawatt hour for gas is five times more than the price just two months ago in June, and ten times higher than the stable prices of gas seen throughout the last decade, broadcaster TV2 writes.
Those prices would cost a family with two children 30,000 kroner more to heat their house with an individual gas heater during the winter months alone, according to calculations by Danske Bank reported by TV2.
Extreme gas prices are also having a knock-on effect on electricity prices, which were record-high for the third consecutive day on Wednesday.
Whether these prices persist through coming months, or fall back towards the already-high levels seen during the rest of the summer, may depend on events related to the Nord Stream 1 pipe in the coming week.
“The next week will be drastically important for what we can expect of prices this winter,” head of strategy for raw materials with Saxo Bank, Ole Sloth Hansen, said in comments to TV2.
The spike in gas prices this week are primarily due to the Russian announcement that Nord Stream 1 will be closed for maintenance works for three days next week.
The pipeline normally sends enough natural gas from Russia to Europe to heat around 26 million homes, but this supply has been significantly reduced since Moscow invaded Ukraine in late February. The EU has placed massive sanctions against Russia, while Moscow has in some cases cut off gas supplies to countries that refused to pay in roubles.
“The market is afraid that this gas is not coming back. That the taps simply won’t be turned back on after the three days are over,” Hansen said.
The problem is exacerbated by hot weather this summer drying up waterways like the Rhein in Germany, which are used to transport diesel and coal.
“Power plants and industrial businesses located there have had to buy gas instead. That has put further pressure on gas prices,” Hansen said to TV2.
According to recent reports, Denmark, which uses the summer months to build a stockpile of gas, has around 93 percent of full storage.
This is not enough on its own to see the country through the winter, however. Recent calculations by the Danish Energy Agency (Energistyrelsen) show that existing stocks are enough to keep Denmark and Sweden heated for around four months if gas supplies from Russia via Germany were switched off.
That time period could be further reduced as the weather gets colder.
Another senior analyst, Anders Christian Overvad of the think tank Tænketanken Europa, told TV2 that “in a situation where Nord Stream 1 doesn’t reopen, there’s such a long time to get through the winter that there’s not enough gas in storage.”
Although there are some levers Denmark can pull – like activating emergency measures and reducing gas supplies to large businesses – it may find itself competing with other countries for scarce supplies, sending prices even higher.
Germany’s energy sector and industry are larger and more gas-dependent than those in Denmark, meaning gas is more likely to go to the bigger country.
“If the price is high in one place, we risk it being equally high in Denmark,” Hansen told TV2.
Should the Nord Stream supply remain closed, it could increase even further to as much as a daunting 400 euros per kilowatt hour, he speculated.
There remains hope that the situation will not deteriorate to this extent.
“If there’s a resolution on some of these things – if water levels increase and if the Russians turn the gas back on next Friday – we’ll see a fall in price from these extreme levels,” Hansen said.
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The Nord Stream 1 gas pipe, which supplies Russian natural gas to Denmark via Germany, is to be closed for three days for maintenance work next week, Russian authorities have said.
But doubts in the EU over whether the Russians will reopen the connection have caused a spike in already-high gas prices and concerns that stocks might not last the winter in Denmark.
Around 400,000 people in Denmark heat their homes using individual gas heater (gasfyr in Danish). Additionally, many district heating areas are reliant on power stations which are partially gas-fuelled.
Monday’s record gas price of 277 euros per megawatt hour for gas is five times more than the price just two months ago in June, and ten times higher than the stable prices of gas seen throughout the last decade, broadcaster TV2 writes.
Those prices would cost a family with two children 30,000 kroner more to heat their house with an individual gas heater during the winter months alone, according to calculations by Danske Bank reported by TV2.
Extreme gas prices are also having a knock-on effect on electricity prices, which were record-high for the third consecutive day on Wednesday.
Whether these prices persist through coming months, or fall back towards the already-high levels seen during the rest of the summer, may depend on events related to the Nord Stream 1 pipe in the coming week.
“The next week will be drastically important for what we can expect of prices this winter,” head of strategy for raw materials with Saxo Bank, Ole Sloth Hansen, said in comments to TV2.
The spike in gas prices this week are primarily due to the Russian announcement that Nord Stream 1 will be closed for maintenance works for three days next week.
The pipeline normally sends enough natural gas from Russia to Europe to heat around 26 million homes, but this supply has been significantly reduced since Moscow invaded Ukraine in late February. The EU has placed massive sanctions against Russia, while Moscow has in some cases cut off gas supplies to countries that refused to pay in roubles.
“The market is afraid that this gas is not coming back. That the taps simply won’t be turned back on after the three days are over,” Hansen said.
The problem is exacerbated by hot weather this summer drying up waterways like the Rhein in Germany, which are used to transport diesel and coal.
“Power plants and industrial businesses located there have had to buy gas instead. That has put further pressure on gas prices,” Hansen said to TV2.
According to recent reports, Denmark, which uses the summer months to build a stockpile of gas, has around 93 percent of full storage.
This is not enough on its own to see the country through the winter, however. Recent calculations by the Danish Energy Agency (Energistyrelsen) show that existing stocks are enough to keep Denmark and Sweden heated for around four months if gas supplies from Russia via Germany were switched off.
That time period could be further reduced as the weather gets colder.
Another senior analyst, Anders Christian Overvad of the think tank Tænketanken Europa, told TV2 that “in a situation where Nord Stream 1 doesn’t reopen, there’s such a long time to get through the winter that there’s not enough gas in storage.”
Although there are some levers Denmark can pull – like activating emergency measures and reducing gas supplies to large businesses – it may find itself competing with other countries for scarce supplies, sending prices even higher.
Germany’s energy sector and industry are larger and more gas-dependent than those in Denmark, meaning gas is more likely to go to the bigger country.
“If the price is high in one place, we risk it being equally high in Denmark,” Hansen told TV2.
Should the Nord Stream supply remain closed, it could increase even further to as much as a daunting 400 euros per kilowatt hour, he speculated.
There remains hope that the situation will not deteriorate to this extent.
“If there’s a resolution on some of these things – if water levels increase and if the Russians turn the gas back on next Friday – we’ll see a fall in price from these extreme levels,” Hansen said.
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