SSI (Statens Serum Institut), which is responsible for combatting infectious diseases in Denmark, said in its evaluation that it now believed that the virus's reproduction rate in Denmark before lockdown measures were put in place had been 2.1.
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This means that each person who caught the disease infected on average 2.1 more people over the course of their illness. The agency said it had developed this estimate by analysing of the rise in daily confirmed cases from 33 a day on March 13 to 83 cases a day on March 18, before the lockdown measures were put in place.
“If the current measures in society continue beyond March 30, the number of reproductions, that is, the number of people to whom each infection carries the infection, could be reduced by 30% to 50%,” the institute estimated.
It said it was basing its mathematical models on data from Italy, where the transmission rate had been higher at 2.6.
But the agency warned that achieving such a reduction would also require keeping public awareness and adherence to social distancing measures high throughout the spring.