No-deal Brexit would be bad news for Danish industry: analysts

Companies in Denmark would likely see fewer orders being placed should the United Kingdom and European Union not reach a deal on the terms of Brexit, analysts say.

No-deal Brexit would be bad news for Danish industry: analysts
PM Lars Løkke Rasmussen and British counterpart Theresa May in Copenhagen earlier this year. Photo: Mads Claus Rasmussen/Ritzau Scanpix

A predicted downturn in the British economy would be the most likely factor affecting Danish industry in the event of the UK leaving the EU without a deal on March 29th next year, Danske Bank senior analyst Mikael Olai Milnøj said.

“It will particularly affect British companies’ desire to invest, because Brexit will create enormous uncertainty,” Milnøj told Ritzau.

“That could result in a slowing down of the British economy and thereby also the demand for Danish goods,” he added.

The UK is a highly important export market for Denmark, with food and medical products among goods crossing the North Sea. According to official stats agency Statistics Denmark, only Germany, the United States and Sweden are larger export markets for Denmark.

Although the exact economic impact of Brexit is difficult to predict, the International Monetary Fund estimated earlier this year that a no-deal Brexit could cut Denmark’s gross domestic product by one percent, which corresponds to approximately one billion kroner annually.

According to IMF, Denmark is one of the three countries outside of the UK – along with Ireland and the Netherlands – which will be most impacted by Brexit.

Anders Ladefoged, deputy director with the Confederation of Danish Industry (Dansk Industri, DI) said that trade with British companies would become more difficult if no terms were reached prior to Brexit.

“It will be a confusing and chaotic situation, because Brexit affects everything from customs to rules on products and transport,” Ladefoged said.

“Companies must soon start treating the United Kingdom as a third country which may have high tariffs on some products,” he added.

Exports may also be affected by more complicated processes for goods entering the UK.

“The long-term effect could be that the (Danish) economy does not grow as quickly as it otherwise would have, because it is benefitting less from the advantages of free trade,” Milhøj said.

Both Ladefoged and Milhøj added that the UK would continue to be an important market for Denmark, even in the event of a no-deal Brexit which could mean tariffs like ones currently in place for trade with important partners like the United States and China.



Brexit: Brits in EU feel European and don’t want to return home

The majority of Britons who live in the EU, Norway, Iceland or Switzerland and are protected under the Brexit agreement feel European and intend to remain in Europe permanently, but many have concerns about travel problems, a new survey reveals.

Brexit: Brits in EU feel European and don't want to return home

The research also shows that problems exist and “travel is where most issues relating to the new status currently occur”. For instance, border officials are still stamping passports of UK citizens with residence rights under the EU UK withdrawal agreement, even though they shouldn’t.

“There is constant confusion around passport stamping. I was ‘stamped in’ to France on a short trip… but could not find anyway to be ‘stamped out’ again. I think I can only spend 90 days in other EU countries, but have no idea how anyone can check or enforce that – until someone decides to try. It’s a mess,” was one of the answers left in an open question.

“Every time I go through a Schengen border control, I need to provide both my passport and Aufenthaltstitel card [resident permit in Germany] and watch to check that they don’t stamp my passport. As I am currently travelling a lot that’s been 20-odd times this year…” another respondent said.

The survey was carried out by Professor Tanja Bueltmann, historian of migration and diaspora at the University of Strathclyde in Glasgow, between October and November 2022. About 1,139 UK citizens replied.

Of these, 80 per cent found acquiring their new status easy or very easy, 60.7 per cent feel their rights are secure, while 39.3 per cent have concerns about their status going forward.

Staying permanently

More than three quarters (76.6 per cent) of respondents said they plan to live permanently in the EU or the other countries of the European Economic Area and Switzerland. In fact, 65.7 per cent said that Brexit has increased the likelihood of this choice.

For some, the decision is linked to the difficulty to bring non-British family members to the UK under new, stricter immigration rules.

“My German wife and I decided we no longer wanted to live in UK post Brexit referendum. In particular, we were affected by the impact of immigration law […] We cannot now return to UK on retirement as I cannot sponsor her on my pension. We knew it was a one-way journey. Fortunately, I could revive an application for German citizenship,” was a testimony.

“My husband is a US citizen and getting him a visa for the UK was near impossible due to my low income as a freelance journalist. We realized under EU law, moving to an EU country was easier. We settled on Austria as we had both lived there before… we could speak some German, and we like the mountains,” said another respondent.

Professor Bueltmann noted that the loss of free movement rights in the EU could be a factor too in the decision of many to stay where they are.

Citizenship and representation

Among those who decided to stay, 38.2 per cent are either applying or planning to apply for a citizenship and 28.6 per cent are thinking about it.

A key finding of the research, Bueltmann said, is that the vast majority of British citizens do not feel politically represented. Some 60 per cent of respondents said they feel unrepresented and another 30 per cent not well represented.

Another issue is that less than half (47.5 per cent) trust the government of their country of residence, while a larger proportion (62 per cent) trust the European Union. Almost all (95.6 per cent) said they do not trust the UK government.

Feeling European

The survey highlights the Brexit impacts on people’s identity too. 82.6 per cent of respondents said they see themselves as European, a higher proportion than those identifying as British (68.9 per cent).

“Brexit has really left me unsure of what my identity is. I don’t feel British, and I certainly don’t identify with the mindset of a lot of British people who live there. Yet, I am not Danish either. So, I don’t really know anymore!” said one of the participants in the survey.

Professor Bueltmann said the survey “demonstrates that Brexit impacts continue to evolve: this didn’t just stop because the transition period was over or a deadline for an application had been reached. Consequently, Brexit continues to shape the lives and experiences of British citizens in the EU/EEA and Switzerland in substantial, sometimes life-altering, ways.”

Considering the results of the study, Professor Bueltmann recommends policy makers in the EU and the UK to address the issue of lack of representation, for instance creating a joint UK-EU citizens’ stakeholder forum.

The report also recommends the UK government to rebuild trust with British citizens in the EU introducing voting rights for life and changing immigration rules to allow British-European families to return more easily. 

This article was prepared in cooperation with Europe Street News.