The European Economic Forecast report for autumn 2014 predicts that an economic recovery will finally take hold in Denmark.
Pointing to the steady decline in the unemployment rate and a housing market that has seen rising prices since late 2011, the European Commission (EC) expects Denmark’s GDP to grow by 0.8 percent in 2014, following a 0.1 percent decrease in 2013.
The EC predicts 1.7 percent growth in 2015 followed by 2.0 percent in 2016 and doesn’t expect Denmark’s general deficit to exceed the three percent of GDP benchmark set by the Stability and Growth Pact.
The economic forecast points to a decline in North Sea oil and gas production as being a significant factor in Denmark’s slow GDP growth but “when correcting for this downward pressure on GDP growth, a picture of a somewhat stronger recovery emerges”.
An increase in consumer spending is also predicted to help Denmark turn the corner on economic recovery.
“The economic conditions are in place for a pick-up in domestic demand, as household disposable income is supported by low interest rates, wage growth and improved labour market conditions,” the EC report reads.
Denmark has also seen improvements in the housing market but the Economic Forecast cautions that “the recovery still appears to be fragile, with large regional differences and a low level of sales”.
On the jobs front, the forecast predicts that Denmark’s unemployment rate will fall to 6.4 percent in 2016, a significant drop from the 7.9 percent level in May 2012.
The EC report comes just over a month after Denmark’s National Bank nearly halved its growth forecast for 2014, predicting that the Danish economy would only grow by 0.8 percent, down significantly from its 1.5 percent growth forecast in June.