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Danish national bank says wage increases will keep inflation high

Thousands of people who work in Denmark are set to receive wage increases under new collective bargaining agreements, but the flip side for private finances is a likely knock-on effect maintaining inflation.

Published: 15 March 2023 16:43 CET
Danish national bank says wage increases will keep inflation high
The Danish central bank says higher wages could get in the way of efforts to control inflation. Photo: Philip Davali/Ritzau Scanpix

Wage increases given to people under the Danish labour system in 2023 and 2024 could help to keep inflation levels up, according to a new forecast by the Danish central bank, Nationalbanken, published on Tuesday.

The central bank publishes two forecasts each year for expected developments in the Danish economy.

“Inflation in Denmark is expected to come down significantly during 2023 as the inflation pressure driven by global conditions eases,” the bank stated.

“But that will be replaced by an inflation pressure driven by domestic circumstances resulting from higher wage increases,” it wrote in the forecast.

Collective bargaining agreements between employer confederations and trade unions this spring are likely to see wage increases for workers across sectors, due to higher living costs connected to inflation.

READ ALSO: Danish store workers get pay rise in new bargaining agreement 

Inflation is predicted to finish at 4 percent for the whole of 2023. That is lower than the inflation rate for the whole of 2022.

Next, inflation will reach 3.6 percent for the year according to the new forecast. This is higher than the figure given for 2024 in the previous forecast, which was 1.7 percent.

Core inflation or kerneinflation, a measure of inflation which does not account for the price of energy and raw food materials, is expected increase as a result of the wage rises.

The measure is predicted to end at 6.2 percent this year and 4.3 percent next year.

The central bank called for political measures to keep a rein on inflation.

“At the current time, Denmark and the eurozone have largely the same challenges in relation to bringing down inflation with an outlook of wage increases which are not compatible with stable, low inflation in the long term,” the bank writes.

“Potential new financial policy that increase capacity strain on the economy should, as a minimum, be responded to with measures that ease the strain in other areas,” it said.

The risk of inflation taking hold in a spiralling increase of prices and wages still exists, the central bank argues. As such, it advocates political intervention should the risk increase.

In such a spiral, higher wages result in higher costs for companies, which raise their prices, meaning consumers need renewed wage increases to maintain their purchasing power.

READ ALSO: Will falling inflation in Denmark mean lower living costs?

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ECONOMY

KEY POINTS: What is in Denmark’s 2023 budget proposal?

Denmark’s coalition government presented on Thursday a new budget proposal in which it said it was “stepping on the brakes” on state spending.

Published: 23 March 2023 17:26 CET
KEY POINTS: What is in Denmark’s 2023 budget proposal?

Danish budgets are usually tabled and eventually adopted during the autumn, but last year’s election disrupted the normal timetable.

The proposed budget, given the title “A Responsible Way Forward” (En ansvarlig vej frem) was presented by ministers from the three coalition parties on Thursday: Finance Minister Nicolai Wammen, acting Defence Minister Troels Lund Poulsen and Culture Minister Jakob Engel-Schmidt.

A cautious economic approach to spending is needed given global circumstances including the war in Ukraine, inflation and last year’s energy crisis, Wammen said.

“Even though a lot of things look good when we look at the Danish economy, that doesn’t change where we are. Uncertain times,” he said.

Engel-Schmidt added that some might describe the proposed budget as “boring”, given that it “doesn’t bring a shower of presents”.

Key points from the proposed budget are outlined below. The proposal will go into negotiations with other parties in parliament before being voted through in its final form.

Inflation assistance to lower income groups 

Last year saw the highest inflation rate for 40 years in Denmark, and the effects will still be felt in 2023 even if the inflation percentages themselves are less severe.

Although the government wants to “step on the brakes”, it has still set aside 2.4 billion kroner for financial assistance to people vulnerable to rising prices.

Some 1.1 billion kroner will be spent on 5,000 kroner “cheques” for elderly persons who receive social welfare. People who have high medicine costs and students who receive subsidies because they must provide for others, such as single parents (SU-forsørgertillæg) are also among groups to be assisted with the inflation spending.

READ ALSO: Danish government agrees inflation package for vulnerable families 

‘Acute plan’ for hospitals

An agreement with regional health authorities on an “acute” spending plan to address the most serious challenges faced by the health services has already been agreed, providing 2 billion kroner by the end of 2024.

The agreement was announced by the government along with regional and municipal officials in February.

READ ALSO: What exactly is wrong with the Danish health system?

‘Lower than ever’ reserve fund

A so-called “negotiation reserve” (forhandlingsreserve), a pool of money in the budget that can be allocated at a later date based on agreements between parties, has been significantly cut to 200 million kroner.

A 2023 budget proposal from August last year, which was not adopted due to the election, had the fund at 600 million kroner. The reserve has been as high as 1.5 billion kroner in the past, according to broadcaster DR’s report on Thursday’s proposal.

The previous, single-party Social Democratic government was reported to favour mental health services and the elderly as areas which could benefit from the fund in 2023.

The lower amount is partly due to the shorter timescale of this year’s budget. The 2024 budget will be proposed and passed in late 2023 under the regular timetable.

“There are still things we can prioritise but we are asking you to take responsibility to get Denmark through while inflation is still a major challenge,” Wammen said.

Spending on courts system

Some 32.2 million kroner has been put aside to specifically target a reduction in waiting times for court dates, DR writes. The money is part of a larger amount, 185 million kroner, to be spent on the courts.

Denmark’s courts system has in recent years seen a rising number of criminal cases and lengthy processing times.

Broadband internet to get boost in rural spending

The “broadband fund” or bredbåndspulje will get an additional 100 million kroner to improve coverage in areas that still have patchy connection.

Another 100 million kroner will go into the landsbypulje or “Village Fund”, giving rural municipalities funding for demolition or renovation of deteriorated buildings.

Ukraine

A majority in parliament has already voted in favour of a seven-billion kroner fund in 2023 to help Ukraine defend itself against the Russian invasion.

The fund will be spent on Danish military, civilian and commercial assistance to Ukraine.

Part of the spending is funded by Denmark’s international development budget, while over 5 billion comes from spending an increased portion of the national GDP on the 2023 budget.

READ ALSO: Denmark announces seven-billion kroner Ukraine fund

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