According to a new analysis from Denmark's infectious diseases agency SSI, the so-called reproduction rate has increased from 0.6 to 0.9, still below the crucial figure of 1, which means that each infected person on average infects on average one other over the course of their illness.
“There is no indication that there is an actual acceleration of the epidemic,” the agency wrote in a status report.
If the reproduction rate is above one, that means the number of infected in a society will grow, if it is slightly below, the number will decline.
“Our conclusion is that the number of admissions as a result of Covid-19 in Denmark has now stabilised at about 20 to 40 admissions per day, and that the reproduction rate is not decreasing to the same extent as we saw in the period before Easter,” it said.
The institute modelled the reproduction rate on the back of the number of infected people being admitted to hospital each day.
The new analysis may lead Denmark's politicians to exercise more caution as they decide which parts of Denmark's lockdown to lift next, as the rate is extremely close to increasing above one, meaning the curve will once again begin to turn upwards.
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