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COVID-19

Rate of infection spread in Denmark ‘higher since schools opening’

The rate at which the coronavirus infection is spreading in Denmark has increased since the country opened schools and kindergartens, but not enough to stop the decline in the number of people infected.

Published: 30 April 2020 19:38 CEST

Rate of infection spread in Denmark 'higher since schools opening'

Niels Christian Vilmann/Ritzau Scanpix

According to a new analysis from Denmark's infectious diseases agency SSI, the so-called reproduction rate has increased from 0.6 to 0.9, still below the crucial figure of 1, which means that each infected person on average infects on average one other over the course of their illness.

“There is no indication that there is an actual acceleration of the epidemic,” the agency wrote in a status report.

If the reproduction rate is above one, that means the number of infected in a society will grow, if it is slightly below, the number will decline.

“Our conclusion is that the number of admissions as a result of Covid-19 in Denmark has now stabilised at about 20 to 40 admissions per day, and that the reproduction rate is not decreasing to the same extent as we saw in the period before Easter,” it said.

The institute modelled the reproduction rate on the back of the number of infected people being admitted to hospital each day.

The new analysis may lead Denmark's politicians to exercise more caution as they decide which parts of Denmark's lockdown to lift next, as the rate is extremely close to increasing above one, meaning the curve will once again begin to turn upwards.

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IN NUMBERS: Has the Omicron Covid-19 wave peaked in Denmark?

Graffiti in the Copenhagen hippy enclave of Christiania complaining of Omicron's impact on Christmas. Photo: Philip Davali/Scanpix

How many cases, hospitalisations and deaths are there in Denmark?

Denmark registered 12,588 new cases in the 24 hours leading up to 2pm on Saturday, down from the 18,261 registered on in the day leading up to Friday at 2pm, which was itself a decline from the record 28,283 cases recorded on Wednesday.

The cases were identified by a total of 174,517 PCR tests, bringing the positive percentage to 7.21 percent, down from the sky high rates of close to 12 percent seen in the first few days of January.

The number of cases over the past seven days is lower than the week before in almost every municipality in Denmark, with only Vallensbæk, Aarhus, Holseterbro, Skanderborg, Hjørring, Vordingborg, Ringkøbing, Kolding, Assens, Horsens, Thisted, and Langeland reporting rises.

Hospitalisations have also started to fall, with some 730 patients being treated for Covid-10 on Saturday, down from 755 on Friday. On Tuesday, 794 were being treated for Covid-19 in Danish hospitals, the highest number since the peak of the 2020-21 winter wave.

The only marker which has not yet started to fall is the number of deaths, which tends to trail infections and hospitalisations.

In the 24 hours leading up to 2pm on Saturday, Denmark registered 28 deaths with Covid-19, the highest daily number recorded since 20 January 2021, when 29 people died with Covid-19 (although Denmark’s deadliest day was the 19 January 2021, when 39 people died).

How does Denmark compare to other countries in Europe?

Over the last seven days, Denmark has had the highest Covid-19 case rate of any country in Europe bar Ireland. The number of new infections in the country has climbed steadily since the start of December, apart from a brief fall over Christmas.

So does this mean the omicron wave has peaked?

Maybe, although experts are not sure.

“Of course, you can hope for that, but I’m not sure that is the case,” said Christian Wejse, head of the Department for Infectious Diseases at Aarhus University Hospital. “I think it is too early to conclude that the epidemic has peaked.”

He said that patients with the Omicron variant were being discharged more rapidly on average than had been the case with those who had the more dangerous Delta variant.

“Many admissions are relatively short-lived, thankfully. This is because many do not become that il, and are largely hospitalized because they are suffering with something else. And if they are stable and do not need oxygen, then they are quickly discharged again.”

Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said during a visit to an event held by the Social Liberal party that the latest numbers made her even more optimistic about the coming month.

“We have lower infection numbers and the number of hospitalisations is also plateauing,” she said. “I think we’re going to get through this winter pretty well, even if it will be a difficult time for a lot of people, and we are beginning to see the spring ahead of us, so I’m actually very optimistic.”

She said that she had been encouraged by the fact that Omicron was a “visibly less dangerous variant if it is not allowed to explode.”

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